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The 72-hour ceasefire drawn up by Egypt and agreed to by both Hamas and Israel has demonstrated Cairo’s indispensable role in mediating conflicts between the two parties, several experts have said.
After a violent campaign in Gaza over the past 29 days, Israel has withdrawn all of its soldiers from the Palestinian enclave as the truce began at 05:00 GMT on Tuesday. Only days earlier, a similar truce proposed by the United States and the United Nations, without Egyptian involvement, had failed.
Nathan Thrall, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said, “The failure of that truce shows that Egypt is indispensable to any solution in Gaza.There was never any possibility of sidelining Egypt from any ceasefire agreement… Egypt was motivated not to be sidelined and not to lose its primacy in the process of mediation”.
Analysts, however, added that there were several other factors which prompted Egypt to reach out to Hamas despite animosity between the two.
Thrall also said that Hamas needs Egypt for a ceasefire to hold, adding that he was aware that a “negotiated ceasefire will entail changes in easing of the Gaza blockade and that easing requires Egypt’s cooperation”.
However, Thrall cautioned that relations between the two will still be tense.
“Egypt is looking at Gaza and Hamas through the prism of its domestic battle with the Muslim Brotherhood. For Egypt, Hamas is its single enemy and that is not changing despite the ceasefire talks”, he said.
Experts also noted that the high casualty number in Gaza has helped Egypt step in and press for a truce.
Michael Hanna from the Century Foundation, said, “Egypt is not independent from Palestinian politics. (Palestinian president Mahmoud)Abbas has shifted his position and so did Egypt.Israel has been battered by international public opinion… and the mounting human sufferings in Gaza (led to Palestine’s position)”.
Others suggested that Saturday’s withdrawal of Israeli troops also turned the tides for Egypt to take a more active role.
James Dorsey of the Rajratnam School of International Studies said, “The fact that the Israelis had started to withdraw made the (Egyptian) ceasefire much more feasible.Israel began withdrawing as it felt it has significantly damaged Palestinian military capability, and it will take a very long time for Palestinians to rebuild.Egypt’s job was made easy as one of the key demands (of Palestinians) of Israeli withdrawal was already decided. Egypt’s timing was right”.